Nationalist parties have done very well in recent elections, and demographic trends indicate the nationalist vote will only increase.
Or will a large part of his nationalist vote follow the fading Zhirinovsky to the Communist?
The nationalist vote has continued to grow which could make this seat a possible battleground between nationalists and unionists.
In Scotland, the nationalist vote doubled relative to 1970.
This was in part due to a split in the nationalist vote.
Despite the split, in the 1892 general election the combined factions still retained the Irish nationalist vote and their 81 seats.
Despite these attempts to win nationalist and separatist votes, the party was reduced to six seats in the 1979 federal election.
The lack of any substantial nationalist vote renders the last two battles immaterial.
From its inception Armagh had a unionist majority, though by the 1970s the nationalist vote was in the mid 30s%.
Belfast South traditionally had a unionist majority, but the nationalist vote has now surpassed this in more recent elections.