Early this month, the 10 most optimistic economists had put the quarter's growth rate at 4.8 percent.

Those optimistic economists were right.

Even the most optimistic economists concede that Japan's retail environment is "challenging."

Corporate earnings are poised to rebound from their slide in 2001, analysts predict, and the economy's resilience after Sept. 11 has surprised even the most optimistic economists.

Even some optimistic economists say the good times, such as they are, may not last.

East Germany's transition period will last three months before growth picks up, and output will fall 2 percent this year, optimistic economists say.

More optimistic economists acknowledged that while the gains in confidence and spending might not be as strong as they appeared, they still provided a basis for growth later on.

But some regional economists and business leaders - optimistic despite the reductions said they - thought the downsizing would soon draw to a close.

Peter Day has a chance meeting with an optimistic economist.

Oil and Recession Oil rose to the highest prices since the early 1980's last week, causing all but the most optimistic economists to predict a recession.