Based on third-quarter gross national product statistics, Mr. Zarnowitz said, a recession did not appear to have started in the third quarter.

The deep recession that began two years ago appears to have ended in mid-2009.

Those predictions are improbable, especially because the recession last year now appears to have been relatively mild, making a strong recovery less likely, Mr. Hill said.

While sales abroad were healthy, the recession appeared to hurt domestic sales volumes and profit margins.

As a result, she said, neither inflation nor recession has appeared to be a significant threat, and stock prices have continued to advance.

Such high real costs help to explain why many businessmen are not yet rushing to build up inventories as the recession appears to be ending.

No doubt Al Gore cringes whenever an economist suggests that a recession might appear in the next few years.

The recession of more recent years does not appear to have induced a reversion back towards multi-employer bargaining.

The recession, which began in March, now appears to have encompassed only one full quarter of negative growth - last summer.

The widely expected worldwide recession never appeared.