Cambridge Energy predicts 7.5 million barrels a day in 2000.

"It's hard to see our Government doing this sort of thing," said Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy.

"The royalty relief is much ado about nothing," Mr. Esser of Cambridge Energy said.

Yes, because supply is ample for now," Cambridge Energy said in a recent study.

In all, this amounts to more than two million barrels of disrupted oil, Cambridge Energy estimates.

"When everyone is running flat out, no one has an incentive to reduce prices," said Mr. Eklof of Cambridge Energy.

But Cambridge Energy said yesterday that it had had access to a more complete set of information.

But when the border was sealed, Cambridge Energy says, that large flow of power had nowhere to go, and it sparked the abrupt New York shutdown.

That higher estimate - which Cambridge Energy says is likely to grow - reflects how new technology can tap into more resources.

"But this is a price that people very easily get very angry about," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy.