"The difference with this disaster is that we have an energy shock," said Laurence H. Meyer, a senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecasting firm.

"The private-sector employment numbers are definitely" an anomaly, said Chris Varvares, a partner at Macroeconomic Advisers.

"Tight labor markets are almost certainly beginning to have some impact on consumer prices," said Chris Varvares, a partner at Macroeconomic Advisers in St. Louis.

"I can buy more," said Ken Matheny, an economist at Macroeconomic Advisers in St. Louis.

Finally, he compares the budget office's figures to those of two private forecasting firms, Global Insight and Macroeconomic Advisers.

"It's kind of hard to point to anything like that now," said Ken Matheny, senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers.

Only one-third of the analysts thought a rate change was likely in the next year, according to Macroeconomic Advisers.

Laurence H. Meyer, a former Fed governor and now a principal at Macroeconomic Advisers, said the evidence of risky lending practices was abundant.

"He is not walking away from the notion that productivity has improved," said Chris Varvares of Macroeconomic Advisers, an economic consulting firm.

Chris Varvares, a partner at Macroeconomic Advisers, a consulting and forecasting firm, argues that confidence has fallen more quickly than actual experience warrants.