Saudi analysts believe that the kidnapping probably happened as the Web account described, but are skeptical about the claim that policemen helped the group.

"I think the government will continue the same as before," said one Saudi analyst, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

Still, the government remains overly cautious in confronting its home-grown radicals, Saudi analysts and even a few princes say, although the security forces have done important work in tracking down extremists.

Saudi analysts say that the contest shapes family actions like none other, stirring factional rivalries that probably have forced Abdullah to tone down his drive for austerity.

Saudi analysts maintain that at least 20 percent of the population believe that non-Muslims should be driven out of the Arabian peninsula, the heartland of Islam.

Saudi analysts said another key moment came after the midterm elections in the United States when the Republicans lost control of Congress.

"He will say, go and do what you want and don't involve me," said Muhammad Salahuddin, a veteran Saudi political analyst and magazine publisher.

"For the first time in a long time, Arabs want U.S. policy to succeed," said a Saudi analyst with close ties to the kingdom's ruling family.

But one Saudi analyst called the estimate optimistic.

Saudi analysts said such protection was usually issued by respected tribal leaders or religious sheiks and there appear to be few such men whom the militants revere.