"Unless we see consumption start to contract again, the odds now seem to favor that first-quarter growth will be positive."

Just two months ago, the central bank estimated that first-quarter growth would be 4.5 percent.

The group forecast first-quarter growth to be in line with the fourth quarter ending November 27 last year.

At month's end, the Government is expected to report first-quarter growth in gross domestic product of 2.5 percent to 3 percent.

Nearly half the first-quarter growth is expected to come from technology companies.

But first-quarter growth actually reached 9.7 percent, as investment rose despite Beijing's warnings.

Within the Administration, the reaction to the weak figures of 1.8 percent first-quarter growth was "I told you so."

The first-quarter growth of 2002 was a little over 6 percent.

He said first-quarter growth might be just 2 to 2.5 percent, well below the 3 percent the Administration has forecast for all of 1993.

That's what happened 18 months ago, when a preliminary estimate put first-quarter 2002 growth at 5.8 percent.