"They should have known," said Ivor van Heerden, a hurricane expert at Louisiana State University.

Joe Bastardi, a hurricane expert for Accuweather.com, said that would not be a reason to relax.

A category 2 storm is nevertheless considered dangerous, hurricane experts say.

"I'm not a hurricane expert," he said repeatedly, adding that Mr. Brown was expected to serve as the on-the-ground commander.

And so would most paleoclimatologists and even hurricane experts.

"I'm not a hurricane expert," he said recently.

Four tropical storms from 1861 had been previously identified by scholars and hurricane experts, but three more were uncovered in modern-day reanalysis.

With his calm on-air demeanor, Hope became quickly recognized as The Weather Channel's in-house hurricane expert.

"It's going to be a panorama of desolation," said Rafael Mojica, a hurricane expert at the center.

Though hurricane experts foresee a generation of fiercer and more frequent storms, Congress seems unlikely to make more than modest changes in the program.