The local strongman - a Qaddafi, or Ayatollah's son, whoever - then raises the stakes.
Some letters were signed by the Taliban; other attacks are likely the work of local strongmen opposed to girls' education.
As the war tore apart Bosnian society, local and national strongmen emerged on all three sides of the conflict.
But the most dangerous form of bet-hedging has been American support for local strongmen.
The administration of the land is supposed to be communal, but local political strongmen often hold sway over hundreds of weaker men's fields.
By then it was at most, as one commentator has put it, 'the unfortified hangout of a local strongman'.
In addition, Japanese soldiers were drawn from many corners by local "strongmen" that controlled their own territories.
The way to avoid this was to use some of your precious NGO funds to hire enough "security" that the local strongman left you alone.
This represents Moses Carter (1801-1860) a local strongman who lived in the village in the nineteenth century.
In nearly all the new states, former Communist Party officials retained power as local strongmen.