Those interviewed were also dubious of Mr. Giuliani's presidential chances, because conservatives dominate the Republican primaries and caucuses despite the moderate image the party showed at this year's convention.

The firings, moreover, did not seem to hurt the presidential chances of Mr. Nemtsov, who like Mr. Chubais is a leading economic reformer.

No fatal damage had been done to Quinn's 2004 presidential chances, but our tardiness had been costly all the same.

On a recent Tuesday night, 11 people showed up at the Goat Cafe in South Orange, N.J., to discuss Mr. Obama's presidential chances.

Many Republican officials said they took Mr. Giuliani's presidential chances seriously and assumed he would run.

The latter did not want the prime ministership, calculating that another tough spell of cohabitation could damage his presidential chances in 1995.

And with his own presidential chances hanging in the balance, he didn't want to be caught on the wrong side of history a second time.

Moreover, there is another phenomenon of political resurrection deeply threatening to Mr. Chirac's presidential chances.