If McCain is going to win Virginia, he has to take the southwestern region of the state by a sizeable margin.

Nixon won Virginia by almost 38 points and carried all but one of the state's counties.

If McCain can't win Virginia, which has 13 electoral college votes, then it is difficult to see how he can win at all.

"They're not going to win Virginia," Mr. Schoen said.

Crawford won Virginia by a margin of 33.44%.

He took three Southern states that the Republicans had won only once since Reconstruction: Virginia, Florida, and Texas.

In addition, the Romney campaign assumed that they would win Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Syracuse has won five times, Maryland twice and Virginia once.

Jackson won Virginia by a margin of 37.98%.

Advisers to General Clark, a West Point graduate, had thought he could win Virginia because of its large military population.