But I think the assumption that it will turn out to be a negative is a wrong bet.
The British investment bank apparently lost close to $1 billion when a single trader made a wrong bet on the direction of Japanese stock markets.
But if that is the wrong bet, you will have unleased major economic problems.
Morgan Stanley announced tough third-quarter results, mainly from a wrong bet on interest rates which affected its trading results.
"If that's the wrong bet, firms will have high levels of fixed costs and low profits and they will have to lay people off."
Do foundations ever place the wrong bet?
Yet the chance still existed that a wrong bet had been made; that the stolen jewelry was of comparatively little value.
The fund lost nearly $400 million of investors' money by making wrong bets on Internet stocks during the technology boom of the late 1990s.
But what if the business community made the wrong bet on the consumer?
Damning the gods of fate because you made the wrong bet makes no sense.